The Oscar Race
By: Brett Deacon |
Friday February 23, 2007 |
| A Guide to Winning Your Pool |
It's a television-viewing tradition second only to the Super Bowl in terms of worldwide viewing audience. The Academy Awards are upon us again this year on Sunday, February 25th from the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, California. Every year, most of us gather among friends and family and enter "Oscar pools", whereby we try to be the biggest movie-know-it-all in the room (a contest won too often by your grandmother who only gets winners right because she "likes the titles") Below I'll give you each of the nominees along with my pick for who SHOULD win and an educated guess for who WILL win (oh, if only they were always one in the same). Best Animated Feature Film of the Year "Cars" (Buena Vista) John Lasseter "Happy Feet" (Warner Bros.) George Miller "Monster House" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Gil Kenan The Race: Usually Pixar runs away with this category, but it's facing some stiff competition here, particularly from Monster House which many critics felt was the better film. Still, it's Pixar so there will be a lot of campaigning for it that will be hard to ignore. Brett's Pick: Cars Place Your Bets: Cars Achievement in Art Direction "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Art Direction: John Myhre Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh "The Good Shepherd" (Universal) Art Direction: Jeannine Oppewall Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau and Leslie E. Rollins "Pan's Labyrinth" (Picturehouse) Art Direction: Eugenio Caballero Set Decoration: Pilar Revuelta "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" (Buena Vista) Art Direction: Rick Heinrichs Set Decoration: Cheryl Carasik "The Prestige" (Buena Vista) Art Direction: Nathan Crowley Set Decoration: Julie Ochipinti The Race: Tough race to call, but I suspect that it comes down to two films: The stylish Dreamgirls and the period/fantasy piece Pan's Labyrinth. Typically it's an award that goes to the film with the most nominations (Dreamgirls) but given that Pan's Labyrinth is both a period film and a fantasy rolled into one, I'll give it the edge here. Brett's Pick: Pan's Labyrinth Place Your Bets: Pan's Labyrinth Achievement in Cinematography "The Black Dahlia" (Universal) Vilmos Zsigmond "Children of Men" (Universal) Emmanuel Lubezki "The Illusionist" (Yari Film Group) Dick Pope "Pan's Labyrinth" (Picturehouse) Guillermo Navarro "The Prestige" (Buena Vista) Wally Pfister The Race: Both of the "magician" films are nominated this year, which is an oddity and as a result may cancel each other out. The Black Dahlia was a terrible film so that will hurt it. Give the edge to Children of Men wherein Lubezki created some of the most jaw-dropping compositions on film this (or any) year. Brett's Pick: Children of Men Place Your Bets: The Illusionist Achievement in Costume Design "Curse of the Golden Flower" (Sony Pictures Classics) Yee Chung Man "The Devil Wears Prada" (20th Century Fox) Patricia Field "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Sharen Davis "Marie Antoinette" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Milena Canonero "The Queen" (Miramax, Pathe and Granada) Consolata Boyle The Race: The Devil Wears Prada and The Queen might seem like odd nominations among this group, but Prada is a film set in the fashion industry and the wardrobes are essential to the plot. To me, it comes down to Curse of the Golden Flower and Marie Antoinette. I'll give the edge to Antoinette because while it received some mixed reviews, everyone raved about the costumes. Brett's Pick: Marie Antoinette Place Your Bets: Curse of the Golden Flower Best Documentary Feature "Deliver Us from Evil" (Lionsgate) Amy Berg and Frank Donner "An Inconvenient Truth" (Paramount Classics and Participant Productions) Davis Guggenheim "Iraq in Fragments" (Typecast Releasing in association with HBO Documentary Films) James Longley and John Sinno "Jesus Camp" (Magnolia Pictures) Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady "My Country, My Country" (Zeitgeist Films) Laura Poitras and Jocelyn Glatzer The Race: Another fine year for documentaries, a genre that has really taken off in popularity in recent years. There are some very fine films here, notably the Priest Molestation piece "Deliver Us From Evil" and the look at the fundamentalist Christian movement among kids in "Jesus Camp". However, An Inconvenient Truth is one of the most important films of the past decade. And beyond that, Davis Guggenheim managed to do what seemed impossible: make an Al Gore environmental lecture on terrifying realities about the environment seem warm and heartfelt. Brett's Pick: An Inconvenient Truth Place Your Bets: An Inconvenient Truth Best Documentary Short Subject "The Blood of Yingzhou District" Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon "Recycled Life" Leslie Iwerks and Mike Glad "Rehearsing a Dream" Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon "Two Hands" Nathaniel Kahn and Susan Rose Behr The Race: Always one of the hardest categories to figure so not a clue who is the clear cut favorite here. So I'll cheat. "Entertainment Weekly" likes Two Hands which is about a pianist who overcomes a disorder with his right hand. Er, okay, sounds good to me. Brett's Pick: Two Hands Place Your Bets: Rehearsing a Dream Achievement in Film Editing "Babel" (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise "Blood Diamond" (Warner Bros.) Steven Rosenblum "Children of Men" (Universal) Alex Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuaron "The Departed" (Warner Bros.) Thelma Schoonmaker "United 93" (Universal and StudioCanal) Clare Douglas, Christopher Rouse and Richard Pearson The Race: I see this as a two horse race between United 93 and The Departed. Thelma Schoonmaker is an icon of American Film Editing, but the woefully ignored and gut-wrenching United 93 will be recognized at some point in the evening for at least it's technical achievements and this seems like a logical place. Brett's Pick: United 93 Place Your Bets: United 93 Best Foreign Language Film of the Year "After the Wedding" A Zentropa Entertainments 16 Production Denmark "Days of Glory (Indigenes)" A Tessalit Production Algeria "The Lives of Others" A Wiedemann & Berg Production Germany "Pan's Labyrinth" A Tequila Gang/Esperanto Filmoj/Estudios Picasso Production Mexico "Water" A Hamilton-Mehta Production Canada The Race: Comes down to "The Lives of Others" and "Pan's Labyrinth. The Lives of Others may be the better film, but Pan's Labyrinth has more universal recognition. Brett's Pick: Pan's Labyrinth Place Your Bets: The Lives of Others Achievement in Makeup "Apocalypto" (Buena Vista) Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano "Click" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Kazuhiro Tsuji and Bill Corso "Pan's Labyrinth" (Picturehouse) David Marti and Montse Ribe The Race: C'mon, like Click has a shot here. That said, hard to pick between Pan's Labyrinth and Apocalypto. Two different types of films, both with solid critical recognition. I'm going to give the edge to the more widely seen of the two. Brett's Pick: Pan's Labyrinth Place Your Bets: Pan's Labyrinth Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) "Babel" (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Gustavo Santaolalla "The Good German" (Warner Bros.) Thomas Newman "Notes on a Scandal" (Fox Searchlight) Philip Glass "Pan's Labyrinth" (Picturehouse) Javier Navarrete "The Queen" (Miramax, Pathe and Granada) Alexandre Desplat The Race: Hard race to call as there are not a lot of well-known composers nominated this year. Desplat won the Golden Globe for The Painted Veil. That may be the best indication we have he's the front-runner. Brett's Pick: Alexandre Desplat for The Queen Place Your Bets: Philip Glass Achievement in Music Written For Motion Pictures (Original song) "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth" (Paramount Classics and Participant Productions) Music and Lyric by Melissa Etheridge "Listen" from "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Music by Henry Krieger and Scott Cutler Lyric by Anne Preven "Love You I Do" from "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Music by Henry Krieger Lyric by Siedah Garrett "Our Town" from "Cars" (Buena Vista) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman "Patience" from "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Music by Henry Krieger Lyric by Willie Reale The Race: Well, you think it'll be a song from Dreamgirls? Yeah, that seems obvious. This is, in my mind, the silliest of the Oscar categories. Not only does it make the award show easily 30 minutes longer, what does best original song have to do with filmmaking achievement? Is this the Grammy's? I digress. Brett's Pick: "Listen" from Dreamgirls Place Your Bets: "Listen from Dreamgirls Best Animated Short Film "The Danish Poet" (National Film Board of Canada) Torill Kove "Lifted" (Buena Vista) Gary Rydstrom "The Little Matchgirl" (Buena Vista) Roger Allers and Don Hahn "Maestro" (SzimplaFilm) Geza M. Toth "No Time for Nuts" (20th Century Fox) Chris Renaud and Michael Thurmeier The Race: This is has been a difficult category to predict in recent years. Usually, you'd just go with whatever is the Pixar movie (Lifted), but that hasn't held true recently. The only other film with a major studio connection is Disney's The Little Matchgirl. Brett's Pick: Lifted Place Your Bets: No Time for Nuts Best Live Action Short Film "Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)" Javier Fesser and Luis Manso "Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)" (Kimuak) Borja Cobeaga "Helmer & Son" Søren Pilmark and Kim Magnusson "The Saviour" (Australian Film Television and Radio School) Peter Templeman and Stuart Parkyn "West Bank Story" Ari Sandel The Race: Again, no clue. I'll say this, it's a shame that the academy doesn't make these shorts more readily available to even the casual film fan. Trusty "EW" likes Eramos Pocos, which is about a father and son who cope with domestic duties. Brett's Pick: Eramos Pocos Place Your Bets: Eramos Pocos Achievement in Sound Editing "Apocalypto" (Buena Vista) Sean McCormack and Kami Asgar "Blood Diamond" (Warner Bros.) Lon Bender "Flags of Our Fathers" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by Paramount) Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman "Letters from Iwo Jima" (Warner Bros.) Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" (Buena Vista) Christopher Boyes and George Watters II The Race: This is largely a technical category, and that means the award usually goes to the largest budgeted film (Pirates). Personally, I think this is category where Eastwood's Flags of Our Fathers could steal away with one. Brett's Pick: Flags of Our Fathers Place Your Bets: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest Achievement in Sound Mixing "Apocalypto" (Buena Vista) Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Fernando Camara "Blood Diamond" (Warner Bros.) Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ivan Sharrock "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie Burton "Flags of Our Fathers" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by Paramount) John Reitz, Dave Campbell, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" (Buena Vista) Paul Massey, Christopher Boyes and Lee Orloff The Race: Again, a technical category, but the Academy loves musicals in this category (see: Chicago) so the edge goes to Dreamgirls Brett's Pick: Dreamgirls Place Your Bets: Dreamgirls Achievement in Visual Effects "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" (Buena Vista) John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and Allen Hall "Poseidon" (Warner Bros.) Boyd Shermis, Kim Libreri, Chas Jarrett and John Frazier "Superman Returns" (Warner Bros.) Mark Stetson, Neil Corbould, Richard R. Hoover and Jon Thum The Race: I think we can safely toss out Poseidon right off the bat and narrow it down tow Superman Returns and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest. Typically, this award goes to the most popular film (which explains why The Matrix beat out Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace in 2000) and that would be Pirates. Brett's Pick: Superman Returns (hey, I believed a man could fly) Place Your Bets: Pirates of the Caribbean Adapted Screenplay "Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan" (20th Century Fox) Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Peter Baynham & Dan Mazer Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Peter Baynham & Anthony Hines & Todd Phillips "Children of Men" (Universal) Screenplay by Alfonso Cuaron & Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus & Hawk Ostby "The Departed" (Warner Bros.) Screenplay by William Monahan "Little Children" (New Line) Screenplay by Todd Field & Tom Perrotta "Notes on a Scandal" (Fox Searchlight) Screenplay by Patrick Marber The Race: A tough race to call. I think the hype has faded over Borat, so let's eliminate that from consideration. There's a lot of heat on The Departed right now (it won the Writer's Guild Award, often the precursor to the Oscar) and it's a fine adaptation, although Little Children may be the best screenplay this year. Brett's Pick: The Departed Place Your Bets On: Little Children Original Screenplay "Babel" (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Written by Guillermo Arriaga "Letters from Iwo Jima" (Warner Bros.) Screenplay by Iris Yamashita Story by Iris Yamashita & Paul Haggis "Little Miss Sunshine" (Fox Searchlight) Written by Michael Arndt "Pan's Labyrinth" (Picturehouse) Written by Guillermo del Toro "The Queen" (Miramax, Pathe and Granada) Written by Peter Morgan The Race: This is likely where Little Miss Sunshine (aka the Little Movie That Could) will get it's recognition. It's already won the Writer's Guild award and many feel that Letters from Iwo Jima and The Queen are really adapted screenplays. Brett's Pick: The Queen Place Your Bets On: Little Miss Sunshine Performance by an actress in a supporting role Adriana Barraza "Babel" (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Cate Blanchett "Notes on a Scandal" (Fox Searchlight) Abigail Breslin "Little Miss Sunshine" (Fox Searchlight) Jennifer Hudson "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Rinko Kikuchi "Babel" (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) The Race: The supporting actor/actress categories usually serve two purposes: to launch a new career or recognize a film icon who's never won before. Jennifer Hudson won the SAG award and is a newcomer, so she's the clear favorite. Brett's Pick: Jennifer Hudson Place Your Bets: Jennifer Hudson Performance By An Actor In A Supporting Role Alan Arkin "Little Miss Sunshine" (Fox Searchlight) Jackie Earle Haley "Little Children" (New Line) Djimon Hounsou "Blood Diamond" (Warner Bros.) Eddie Murphy "Dreamgirls" (DreamWorks and Paramount) Mark Wahlberg "The Departed" (Warner Bros.) The Race: Again, this category serves two purposes so Eddie Murphy (also the SAG winner) is the favorite here. But Wahlberg gave a scene stealing performance in The Departed and although doesn't have a lot of screen time, he does everything with it. Brett's Pick: Mark Wahlberg Place Your Bets: Eddie Murphy Achievement in Directing (Best Director) "Babel" (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu "The Departed" (Warner Bros.) Martin Scorsese "Letters from Iwo Jima" (Warner Bros.) Clint Eastwood "The Queen" (Miramax, Pathe and Granada) Stephen Frears "United 93" (Universal and StudioCanal) Paul Greengrass The Race: One of the most talked about categories this year, mostly because everyone is asking if this is Scorsese's year. Greengrass is rightly recognized for the United 93, but NEVER in the history of the Academy Awards has a director won Best Director for a film that was not nominated for Best Picture. And going up against Scorsese, it'll be hard for Greengrass to buck that trend. And it doesn't hurt Scorsese that The Departed is a fine film. Brett's Pick: Paul Greengrass (the film is just that good) Place Your Bets: Martin Scorsese Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role Penelope Cruz "Volver" (Sony Pictures Classics) Judi Dench "Notes on a Scandal" (Fox Searchlight) Helen Mirren "The Queen" (Miramax, Pathe and Granada) Meryl Streep "The Devil Wears Prada" (20th Century Fox) Kate Winslet "Little Children" (New Line) The Race: This might be the easiest prediction to make among the major category. Helen Mirren is adored by her peers, gave a phenomenal performance, and was the winner of the SAG Award. Brett's Pick: Helen Mirren Place Your Bets: Helen Mirren Performance By An Actor iIn A Leading Role Leonardo DiCaprio "Blood Diamond" (Warner Bros.) Ryan Gosling "Half Nelson" (THINKFilm) Peter O'Toole "Venus" (Miramax, Filmfour and UK Film Council) Will Smith "The Pursuit of Happyness" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Forest Whitaker "The Last King of Scotland" (Fox Searchlight) The Race: This contest might be closer than people think. O'Toole, an eight time nominee and never a winner is the sentimental favorite. Many think Gosling gave the best performance overall, but the SAG award went to Whitaker so he's still the favorite here. Brett's Pick: Peter O'Toole (what's a guy gotta do to win? C'mon...) Place Your Bets: Forrest Whitaker. Best Motion Picture of the Year "Babel" (Paramount and Paramount Vantage) Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Jon Kilik and Steve Golin, Producers "The Departed" (Warner Bros.) Graham King, Producer "Letters from Iwo Jima" (Warner Bros.) Clint Eastwood, Steven Spielberg and Robert Lorenz, Producers "Little Miss Sunshine" (Fox Searchlight) David T. Friendly, Peter Saraf and Marc Turtletaub, Producers "The Queen" (Miramax, Pathe and Granada) Andy Harries, Christine Langan and Tracey Seaward, Producers The Race: Well, personal bias aside (How the hell wasn't United 93 nominated here?!), I don't think this race is as wide open as people think. Babel is basically an international version of Crash (last year's winner), Letters from Iwo Jima is basically a foreign language film and voters may have Eastwood-Haggis hangover. Little Miss Sunshine has lost some of it's sparkle having been released on DVD months ago. The Queen is a fine film, but not the "showy" kind that usually wins awards. That leaves The Departed, and you know what? Out of this group, it deserves it. Brett's Pick: United 93 (nope, not lettin' that one go) Place Your Bets: The Departed. |
